Arkansas Razorbacks vs Alabama Crimson Tide Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/18/26

Winners of 3 straight and 7 of their last 10, the Arkansas Razorbacks will hit the road for Tuscaloosa on Wednesday night to play the Alabama Crimson Tide for the only time during the regular season. Arkansas’ most recent win came at home against Alabama’s arch rival, in what was an excellent offensive showing from the Hogs against Auburn. They scored 1.32 points per possession on 67.5% shooting from the interior, while the Tigers struggled to find offensive consistency without Keyshawn Hall. 

Like Arkansas, Alabama finds itself in the midst of a nice winning streak and has prevailed in 7 of the last 10 games. The offense has come alive since the 100-77 loss to Florida, as the Tide have scored 89 or more in 4 straight and have made at least 12 threes – as many as 17 – in each of those games. It will be interesting to see if that holds up against an Arkansas defense that is 3rd in the SEC in three-point rate allowed and while limiting conference opponents to 31.3% on those attempts. In fact, over their last 5 games, the Razorbacks are in the 87th percentile or better nationally in three-point rate allowed, three-point percentage allowed and three-point assist rate – which means this Arkansas squad matches up nicely against the perimeter-oriented Alabama offense. We saw it a bit last year, when Coach Cal’s Razorbacks held Alabama to 5-of-19 from 3, albeit that game being in Fayetteville rather than Tuscaloosa with completely different teams. However, the overall structures of these systems remain the same. 

This Arkansas defense has traveled well this season, sitting 31st nationally in adjusted efficiency in road games per Bart Torvik, as well as 24th in opposing 3-point percentage and sixth in block rate. In conference road games, the Razorbacks lead the SEC in forced turnover rate and opposing free-throw rate, which should give them a chance to win the shot volume battle against Alabama. In their 6 conference road games, they are 4-2 ATS. Zooming out a bit, they are 17-8 ATS this season and have covered in 8 of their 12 games since the new year. Meanwhile, Alabama is 11-14 ATS this season and 2-4 ATS at home since January 1. 

Arkansas vs Alabama prediction: Arkansas +4.5 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable to +3.

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