Arkansas Razorbacks vs Florida Gators Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/28/26

Winners in 8 of their last 10, the Arkansas Razorbacks are 11-4 in SEC play, tied with Alabama at 2nd in the conference behind the very Florida team they play in Gainesville on Saturday in primetime. The defending champions are on an 8-game win streak – the nation’s 5th longest – while boasting a 13-2 conference record, and they’re dominating teams in the process given 7 of those 8 wins were by at least 13 points. 

At first glance, this is a massive number to lay with Florida against what is a very good Arkansas team. However, I like Florida here, mostly because of how bad Arkansas has been defensively of late – particularly around the rim. Over their last 5 games, the Razorbacks are in the 29th percentile nationally in defensive rating, 15th percentile in defensive rebounding rate and 2nd percentile in paint points allowed per game (CBBAnalytics), which are alarming weaknesses to have against a Florida front court with tremendous size and championship pedigree. With the 3-headed monster of Rueben Chinyelu, Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh, the Gators are among the nation’s best offensively, particularly in the paint and on the offensive glass – exactly where Arkansas is deficient. 

The Razorbacks feel like a one-man show at times with Darius Acuff. He’s a special talent, but Arkansas will likely need more in order to cover this number, much less have a chance to win. Florida will counter him with Xaivian Lee and Boogie Fland, who both grade as top-12 defenders in the SEC per EvanMiya’s DBPR. In fact, Florida’s entire starting lineup is in the top 12 of the conference and top 80 nationally in that regard, limiting activity around the rim and contesting threes with their length at an elite level – particularly in the corners where Arkansas is in the 87th percentile in shot frequency. Florida should dominate the glass and get whatever they want in the paint and around the rim all game long, while it could be a long night for the Razorbacks if a Robin doesn’t arise to aid Acuff’s role as Batman. Give me the Gators. 

Arkansas vs Florida prediction: Florida Gators -9.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -10.5. 

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