Baylor Bears vs Iowa State Cyclones Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/07/26

The Baylor Bears find themselves on their first win streak in conference play, having won each of their last 2 over West Virginia and Colorado. However, a road trip to Ames to play the Iowa State Cyclones might put an end to that. These teams met once already this season in early January, and it was Iowa State that won 70-60 in Waco despite a poor offensive performance. Iowa State’s defense stole the show, holding Baylor to 0.87 points per possession on 40% shooting from two-point range and just 18.5% beyond the three-point line, while forcing 14 turnovers. 

Iowa State’s defense is built to suffocate Baylor’s play style. The Bears look for a majority of their offensive production around the rim, off the dribble, in the mid-range and in transition. Unfortunately for them, the Cyclones are elite in all of those areas defensively, limiting attempts at the rim and transition opportunities as well as any team in the country – especially against top-100 opponents – while ranking in the 93rd percentile or better against opposing attempts in the mid-range and off the dribble (Hoop-Explorer). In the first meeting, Iowa State held Baylor to 0 points off the dribble, 0.4 points per possession on mid-range attempts, and just 0.86 points per possession in transition. Moreover, the Bears averaged just 0.60 points per possession at the rim.

In the return game at home, I expect Iowa State to look much better offensively. This is a team that averages close to 91 points per game at home with nearly a 62% effective field goal percentage – which ranks 5th nationally. Meanwhile, Baylor surrenders more than 75 points per road game and has struggled to contain their best offensive opponents all season long.

Baylor vs Iowa State prediction: Iowa State Cyclones -14.5 (-120) at the time of publishing. Playable to -16.5.

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