Baylor Bears vs Kansas Jayhawks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 01/16/26

There aren’t many college basketball games on Friday, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t any games that demand your attention. Headlining the small Friday hoops card is an awesome Big 12 matchup between the Baylor Bears and the Kansas Jayhawks, being played at Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence, Kansas. It will be the second straight home game for the Jayhawks after they put forth a dominant effort over previously-undefeated Iowa State on Tuesday, tallying 1.29 points per possession on 51.4% from two-point range and 50% from beyond the arc while holding the Cyclones to 0.97 points per possession and sub-40% from the field. Baylor also enters this contest off a victory after beating Oklahoma State 94-79 in Stillwater. The win ended a 3-game skid and represents the first conference win for the Bears, but now they face their second road game in as many outings — and in a venue in which they historically have struggled to find success. In fact, Baylor has just 1 win at The Phog in program history, which came back in January of 2020. 

In non-conference play, the Bears relied heavily on transition opportunities and points in the paint to spearhead their offense, but those opportunities have dried up in conference play in a big way. Baylor averaged almost 15 fast break points and 38 paint points against non-conference opponents, but those numbers have fallen to 5.5 and 26.5, respectively, in league play. The Bears’ struggles have permeated to the defensive end, as well, where they have fallen to the 36th percentile in defensive rating against Big 12 opponents. All things considered, this is not a good place to be heading to a venue in which they have had almost no success historically.

If the Bears can’t find easy buckets in transition or the paint, it’s going to be a long night for them. Assuming Kansas removes those options, Baylor will have to settle for mid-range shots and perimeter attempts off both kick-outs and the dribble, all of which the Jayhawks have shut down at a similar efficiency as their paint and transition defense against quality opponents. Playing their second straight road game, this time in one of the most intimidating venues in the country, I don’t trust Baylor to score enough to cover — much less to win the game. Rock Chalk.

Baylor vs Kansas prediction: Kansas -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -9.

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