Butler Bulldogs vs SMU Mustangs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 11/15/25

The Butler Bulldogs will travel to Dallas on Saturday for a non-conference game against the SMU Mustangs. Both teams are 3-0 and will look to remain undefeated with a big win against another Power 5 opponent.  Neither team has played a game within 10 points, but this game should be a close one. The spread is currently set at 7 points and I expect Butler to stay within that number.

It should be an evenly matched game, and I expect it to be close throughout. KenPom projects this game to finishe as a SMU 5-point win. SMU has home-court advantage and is ranked higher on most analytical sites, but I see Butler dominating the paint in this one. The Bulldogs are currently ranked #8 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage and are in the 100th percentile in second-chance points. Their defensive rebounding is very effective, as well, possessing a 76.9 defensive rebounding percentage.

The Mustangs do not offensive rebound at a high level, but they will try to score most of their points in the paint. They are ranked in the eighth percentile in 3-pointers per game, averaging just 16.7 triples per game — and they are ranked just #219 in 2-point percentage offensively. Butler is the better rebounding team and the better 3-point shooting team, so I expect it to cover the spread. Butler is 3-0 ATS this season; that trend should continue in game 4.

Butler vs SMU prediction: Butler +7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +6.

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