Cal Baptist Lancers vs Kansas Jayhawks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/20/26

After a long and eventful regular season and the beautiful chaos of Championship Week, the best time of year is finally here. March Madness has arrived and with it comes a plethora of games for us to dig into over the course of a couple of action-packed days. One of the final games on Friday’s slate features a team in Cal Baptist that is making its first NCAA Tournament appearance matching up with Kansas — one of the historic blue bloods in the sport. And while I do lean toward laying the points with Jayhawks, I’ll be focusing instead on the total in this one.

For starters, this is a game that profiles nicely as a lower-scoring battle given how both teams tend to operate. In fact, there are multiple game script avenues for this matchup to stay under the total, which gives me confidence in targeting the under at the current number. Kansas is a defense-first operation this season, as the Jayhawks boast a top 10 defense in the nation and are especially elite inside the paint thanks to the presence of big man Flory Bidunga, who is up there with the best individual defenders in college basketball. The Jayhawks lone weakness on defense is on the boards, but they’ve still been able to win plenty of games in a loaded Big 12 conference with their defensive intensity and discipline. Kansas is not only a very effective defense at the rim, but Bill Self’s team has been able to defend the basket at a high level without fouling, as the Jayhawks are 29th in free-throw rate allowed and 5th in 2-point defense on the year.

As for the underdog in this game, Cal Baptist is barely inside the top 200 in adjusted offensive efficiency (KenPom), and while Dominique Daniels Jr. is electric off the bounce, the Lancers top scoring threat could be in some real trouble in this one against a Kansas defense that has plenty of length and athleticism to slow down the high-scoring combo guard. Elsewhere, the Lancers don’t shoot threes (328th in 3-point rate) or get to the free-throw line and they’re quite strong on the offensive glass, so we could see plenty of elongated possessions in this one, especially if this is a closer game than what oddsmakers expect. After all, Cal Baptist’s real strength is on defense (ranked 37th in adjusted efficiency) and Kansas has struggled mightily away from home when it comes to knocking down outside shots. Don’t expect the Jayhawks to put up a ton of points in this game, and even if Kansas is in a good position to cover this massive spread, it will be due to its excellent defense and ability to comfortably navigate a game that is being played in the mud. I’ll take a shot on the under at the current number.

Cal Baptist vs Kansas prediction: Under 138.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 138.