Cincinnati Bearcats vs Xavier Musketeers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 12/05/25

The Cincinnati Bearcats and the Xavier Musketeers will meet in a rivalry known as the Crosstown Shootout on Friday night as non-conference play – well, outside of the Big Ten – continues. Cincinnati is 6-2 SU with losses to Louisville and Eastern Michigan, and both defeats came within its last 4 games. Against the number, the Bearcats are just 2-6, including 5 straight non-covers. Meanwhile, Xavier, who notably started the year in ugly fashion, has found a groove of late to improve its straight-up record to 6-3. The Musketeers have been slightly better against the number, boasting a 4-5 mark, with all 4 covers coming in the last 5 outings. 

This rivalry has been played pretty much annually since the mid-1940s, so this isn’t some newly-cultivated rivalry. However, with the rise in the transfer portal, I’m not sure there’s as much animosity between the players as there has been historically. Remember, there was a brawl between these teams at the Cintas Center on Xavier’s campus in 2011. Speaking of the Cintas Center, the Bearcats are just 1-10 in that building with that lone win being way back in 2001 – right after it opened.

Cincinnati is best defensively at the rim, but the Bearcats can be exposed from beyond the three-point line, which is where Richard Pitinio has his offense operating after some lineup adjustments due to the slow start to the season. The Bearcats are 292nd in three-point rate allowed, as their opponents get a perimeter look on over 44% of shots from the field. The Bearcats have been fortunate that their opponents haven’t cashed in on more of those looks considering they’ve shot just 31% collectively from range against Cincinnati. I don’t see the ‘Cats being as fortunate on Xavier’s home floor, where the Musketeers have connected on more than 38% of attempts this season. Xavier has even kicked it up a notch over its last 3 games, hitting at least 10 threes in 5 straight games and over 44% in its last 3.

Neither team offers much consistency from the free-throw line, inside the arc, or on the offensive glass, so offense could be difficult to find for various stretches of this game. However, given Xavier’s offensive resurgence with its small-ball lineup and its dramatic advantage in turnover rate – 15th nationally vs. Cincinnati’s 294th – I expect the Musketeers to continue their dominant form over their cross-town rival with a win in the friendly confines of the Cintas Center. 

Cincinnati vs Xavier prediction: Xavier ML (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable to -135 ML or -2 ATS.

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