Connecticut Huskies vs St. John's Red Storm Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/14/26

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The Big East tournament has produced fairly chalky results to this point, and that has led to the top 2 seeds squaring off in Saturday’s title game. The UConn Huskies have dispatched of Xavier and Georgetown with relative ease, while St. John’s took care of Providence and Seton Hall in the quarterfinal and semifinal rounds respectively. These have been the top teams in this weaker version of the Big East all season long, and we should be in for an entertaining final. While St. John’s will certainly be comfortable playing in Madison Square Garden in this one, I can’t help but side with the team that is not only excellent in short turnaround situations, but has a higher floor and ceiling on offense.

UConn hasn’t been the most consistent offense in the world, but the Huskies are a team that has shown an ability to raise their level of play come March, and this is also the healthiest that they’ve been all season to this point. Danny Hurley’s group isn’t an elite shooting team from beyond the arc, but they are an extremely efficient halfcourt offense and they’re a tough team to guard on short rest because of all of their unique sets and off-ball motion. St John’s is obviously very familiar with what UConn will run in this game, and while the Red Storm have an excellent defense (ranked 12th nationally in adjusted efficiency), it’s hard to see Rick Pitino’s team having much success on the other side of the ball. The Red Storm don’t have much in the way of an offense outside of the paint, and that showed in their abysmal 40-point showing against UConn just a few weeks ago. While I don’t expect a repeat of that season-worst performance on Saturday, it’s difficult to trust St. John’s very poor 3-point shooting (ranked 334th in 3-point percentage) against an excellent defense in a game of this magnitude.

UConn vs St. John’s prediction: UConn -2.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to UConn -3.