Dayton Flyers vs VCU Rams Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/06/26

The Dayton Flyers were able to snap their 4-game losing streak with a home win over St. Bonaventure on Tuesday, but it didn’t come without drama. Dayton trailed by 3 with less than 3 minutes to play, and they ended up winning by just 2 thanks to Jordan Derkack’s free throws with 2 seconds left and an ensuing missed three from St. Bonaventure. Things won’t get easier for them on Friday when they travel to VCU to play the Rams, winners of 6 straight. VCU’s most recent win came at Fordham on Tuesday without Nyk Lewis, as the Rams led by as many as 16 before slowing bleeding the lead away to ultimately win by just 4. Lewis should be good to go for this matchup against Dayton, as it was reported that he was held out on Tuesday as a precaution. 

At first glance, this line is jarring considering Dayton’s level of success in recent years, but the Flyers aren’t playing great basketball right now on either end of the floor. They are 340th in offensive momentum and 335th in defensive momentum according to Haslametrics, while ranking 340th away from home. Furthermore, they have underperformed offensive expectations in 9 of their last 11 games and in 4 of their last 5 on the defensive end. As a result, Dayton has failed to cover in 5 straight and 8 of their last 11.

I need to see more from the Flyers to back them, even as an underdog – a role in which they’ve been a mediocre 2-3 ATS this season, including 0-2 SU and ATS in their last 2. This VCU offense is ferocious in its rim attacks, kick-outs and shots off the dribble, and Dayton has left a bit to be desired in those areas defensively against top-100 opponents. It’s going to be difficult for Dayton to match VCU’s offensive output at the Siegel Center considering the Flyers are 10th in the A-10 in adjusted offensive efficiency, 12th in turnover rate and dead last in offensive rebounding rate. The only area in which Dayton has succeeded offensively in conference play is the free throw line, but VCU has been disciplined defensively – sending conference opponents to the line less than 32% of the time. Don’t be surprised to see a double-digit victory for VCU on Friday.

Dayton vs VCU prediction: VCU Rams -7.5 (-105) at the time of publishing. Playable to -8.5. 

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