Duke Blue Devils vs Arkansas Razorbacks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Thursday, 11/27/25

No matter where he’s coaching, Coach Calipari going up against Duke is always must see TV – even on Thanksgiving during the Bengals-Ravens game. Arkansas comes into this contest at 5-1 having won 4 straight, while Duke is a perfect 7-0 with big, double-digit wins over Texas and Kansas. As you would probably expect, the Blue Devils are getting it done on both ends of the floor. They currently sit top-5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency according to KenPom, as well as effective field goal percentage on both ends. For reference, Duke has a 61.3% effective field goal percentage, mostly buoyed by shooting over 66% from 2-point range, while boasting a 38.7% effective field goal percentage defensively. Simply put, opponents can’t score against this Duke bunch, and it shows in the box score – as the Blue Devils have yet to allow more than 66 points this year. 

I struggle to find a path to success for the Hogs here. Arkansas has average-at-best on the glass, which won’t help steal extra possessions from Duke. Moreover, the Hogs want to run in transition, as shown by their 99.7 percentile grade in transition frequency per Hoop-Explorer, but Duke simply isn’t going to allow them to do that. The Blue Devils yield one of the lowest transition rates in the country, which means Arkansas is going to have to produce offense in the half court – something the Hogs didn’t do very well against Michigan State earlier this year. Finally, Arkansas tends to be too slow when closing-out on perimeter shots at times on the defensive end, which is a death sentence against Isaiah Evans, Caleb Foster, Dame Sarr, and the rest of the Duke shooters. 

This number is certainly inflated due to the name on the front of the blue, black, and white jerseys, and while Coach Cal might have a game plan to limit Duke’s offensive firepower, I wouldn’t recommend investing in Arkansas in this matchup. There aren’t many teams I would like to step in front of Duke with at this moment in time. 

Arkansas vs Duke prediction: Duke -10.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -12. 

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