Duke Blue Devils vs Michigan State Spartans Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 12/06/25

The Duke Blue Devils and the Michigan State Spartans will meet in a massive non-conference matchup at noon ET on Saturday on FOX, and the beautiful thing about this game is that it will be played on Michigan State’s campus at the Breslin Center instead of a neutral-site venue that’s a quarter of the way full. Considering MSU’s fall semester doesn’t end until next week, it should be lively in the Breslin Center ahead of Duke’s first test in a truly hostile environment – no offense to Army. These teams are a perfect 17-0 combined, so someone’s perfect record will pick up its first blemish of the season after this one. 

I’m a bit surprised to see this total in the low 140s. Tom Izzo’s Spartans are outside the top 200 in KenPom’s average possession length metric and have been known to slow their home games down to a slog; look no further than their last game against Iowa or their game against Arkansas on November 8. Michigan State also excels at taking away chances at the rim, which is a detriment to Duke’s offense. The Blue Devils are 22nd nationally in near-proximity shot frequency (Haslametrics), and the Spartans are even better at taking those shots away. Sparty has the requisite size to disrupt Cam Boozer at the basket and keep Duke off the glass, forcing the Blue Devils into more contested jump shots – which isn’t exactly a recipe for success in a hostile road game. 

Michigan State has improved its perimeter shooting compared to last year, but the Spartans still don’t shoot from range a ton. In fact, they love to operate in the midrange relative to the rest of the county. Duke will give up those midrange shots, but like Sparty, the Blue Devils are long enough to contest most jump shots. 

Both of these defenses are top-5 in efficiency, top-25 in opposing effective field goal percentage, and top-30 in block rate. Furthermore, Duke and Michigan State are very disciplined defensively in that they are top 100 in free throw rate allowed, which is always good to see when betting an under. That’s exactly the way I’m going to go here, low on the total. 

Duke vs Michigan State prediction: Under 142.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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