Duke Blue Devils vs North Carolina Tar Heels Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/07/26

The best game of Saturday’s college hoops slate takes place on Tobacco Road in the ACC, as we’ll see the most storied rivalry in the sport take center stage for the first time this season. Duke and North Carolina is a game that consistently delivers, and there’s no reason to expect any different on Saturday. The market has been extremely high on Duke throughout conference play, and the Blue Devils have consistently rewarded bettors in the favorite role. However, Jon Scheyer’s team has had a relatively easy schedule to this point in league play, and this will be a step-up in class compared to the likes of Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Boston College, Stanford, California and a banged-up Louisville team at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Given the season-long numbers for both teams and the home-court boost for North Carolina, I have this one projected closer to Duke as a 3-point favorite, so that creates a bit of value on a Tar Heels team that is playing its best basketball of the season over the last couple of weeks.

After some inconsistent play earlier in the season, North Carolina appears to have settled into its backcourt rotations and Hubert Davis has found some recent avenues for success on defense. The results in recent games have been noticeable compared to earlier in ACC play, when the Tar Heels would consistently get flambéed at the point of attack. The matchup that will command all of the attention in this game is Caleb Wilson vs Cam Boozer in what should be a showdown between 2 of the top 4 picks in this summer’s NBA Draft. Boozer leads a Duke team that is a very well-rounded unit, but the Blue Devils are a bit weaker on offense compared to what their perception indicates — especially from beyond the arc (186th in 3-point percentage per Barttorvik). I have no questions about the Blue Devils defense, but this is a tough matchup for Scheyer’s big men against the North Carolina bigs, especially if Wilson and Henri Veesaar are able to step out and knock down open threes, which should force the Duke bigs out onto the perimeter and clear up driving lanes for the Tar Heel guards. Lastly, it’s worth repeating that North Carolina has showed up in some big spots this season, most notably in wins over Kansas, Kentucky and Virginia. I think the Heels have a real shot on the money line in this one, so I’ll gladly take the points at nearly 2 full possessions.

Duke vs North Carolina prediction: North Carolina +5.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to +5

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