Florida Gators vs Miami Hurricanes Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 11/16/25

As someone that bet on Florida countless times last year, including a National Championship future, I was very excited to see the new-look Gators this year. However, it hasn’t quite been smooth sailing for the champs, specifically because of their back court. Transfers Xaivian Lee and Boogie Fland haven’t showcased the same offensive upside of Walter Clayton, Alijah Martin, and Will Richard, which is reflected in the numbers. Florida has made just 21.1% of its 3-point attempts (353rd) and fewer than 67% of its free throws (271st), which has made it difficult for the Gators to win and cover against power conference opponents thus far. On Sunday, they’ll face their second straight in-state rival in the Miami Hurricanes after narrowly getting past Florida State on Tuesday.

The Gators should have a massive edge on the glass in this matchup, and if they can wake up from the perimeter, they should win comfortably over the Hurricanes. However, we haven’t seen that from the Gators yet this year, and it’s hard to envision the offense coming together completely on a neutral-site floor. As such, the number feels a bit rich – more reflective of Florida’s ceiling than the product it has put on the court thus far. The Hurricanes have showcased a desire to run in transition, and if they beat the Florida bigs down the floor consistently, they should find enough offense to finish inside the number. It’s certainly not my most confident pick of the day, but I lean to the ‘Canes to do just enough to cover. 

Florida vs Miami prediction: Miami Hurricanes +10.5 (-105) at the time of publishing. Playable to +10. 

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