Florida Gators vs Texas Longhorns Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/25/26

Florida’s hot form continued on Saturday with a 94-75 win at Ole Miss, which extended their win streak to 7 games – the nation’s 8th-longest. The Gators will face their 2nd road game in as many outings on Wednesday when they travel to Austin to play a Texas team coming off a 91-80 road loss at Georgia. Prior to that, the Longhorns had won 5 straight and 6 of 7. They are 8-6 in conference play, holding on to hope of winning out and securing a top-4 seed in the SEC Tournament. However, that’s going to be a difficult task against a Florida team that is 12-2 in conference and has dropped 90+ points more often than not since the holidays. 

Texas’ strengths are found on the offensive end and on the glass. The Horns are 6th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, as well at top-15 in offensive rebounding rate. Meanwhile, they get to the line at the 2nd-highest rate in the country. In conference play, they are 2nd in efficiency and effective field goal percentage, leading the league in three-point shooting despite low volume. Moreover, they are 4th in offensive rebounding rate and free throw rate. The issue is, Florida shuts all those avenues down. The Gators are top-5 nationally and 1st in the SEC in adjusted defensive efficiency, while sitting 11th and 1st, respectively, in effective field goal percentage allowed. Their elite size neutralizes Texas’ strength on the glass, as they rank top-3 nationally in offensive rebounding rate allowed, and the Gators play very disciplined on the defensive end – sending SEC opponents to the line at the 2nd-lowest rate. 

When the Longhorns have the ball, they love to attack through transition, off the dribble and in the mid-range with Jordan Pope, Tramon Mark and Dailyn Swain. They also love to operate through Swain and Matas Vokietaitis in ball screens and post-ups, but they will be met with much resistance by a Gator defense that is among the nation’s best against those types of actions. Per Hoop-Explorer, Florida is in the 87th percentile or better against all of those plays defensively sans opposing dribble jumpers, but Texas is going to need more than that to stick around here – especially considering the Longhorns’ defensive ineptitude around the rim and their lack of discipline in the foul department. For reference, Texas is 301st nationally in free throw rate allowed, which means the Longhorns are likely to give the Gators a healthy amount of free points at the line. Furthermore, Texas has really struggled against its best defensive opponents this year, going 2-6 SU against top-50 defenses per KenPom. Against top-20 defenses like Florida’s, Texas is 0-4 SU with a double-digit average margin of defeat. Meanwhile, Florida is on a 6-0 ATS run as a road favorite.

Florida vs Texas prediction: Florida Gators -6.5 (-105) at the time of publishing. Playable to -8.

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