Florida Gators vs Vanderbilt Commodores Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 01/17/26

One of the 3 ranked matchups of Saturday’s loaded college hoops slate tips off at 2:00 pm ET on ESPN when the defending-champion Florida Gators head to Memorial Gymnasium in Nashville to take on the Vanderbilt Commodores. Florida’s non-conference resume isn’t the best, and the Gators started conference play with a loss, but they’ve caught fire since then – beating Georgia, Tennessee, and Oklahoma convincingly in 3 straight games.

Meanwhile, Vanderbilt came up short for the first time this season in a 80-64 loss at Texas on Wednesday. The Commodores just couldn’t get anything going, scoring just 0.97 points per possession on 37.1% shooting from two-point range and 36% beyond the arc. They were also dominated on the glass in a big way, losing the rebounding battle 42-24. It was the 2nd time Vandy has been vulnerable on the glass in conference play, as Alabama grabbed 49 of them against the Commodores – 18 offensive. 

Vanderbilt has been great on both ends of the floor to this point, but the Commodores lack height – as shown in their rebounding deficiencies. That’s detrimental against Florida, who is one of the biggest teams in the country and among the best on the glass. In fact, the Gators are 2nd nationally in offensive rebounding rate and 3rd in offensive rebounding rate allowed this season. They aren’t as efficient offensively as they were last year en route to a national title, but they have really picked it up on the defensive end of the floor – where they are 1st in the SEC in adjusted efficiency while surrendering the lowest three-point rate and boasting the best two-point defense in the conference.

The Gators are also very good defensively in transition, sitting in the 99th percentile in that aspect against top-50 teams per Hoop-Explorer, which will be a huge factor against a transition-heavy team like Vanderbilt. With their extreme size and rebounding advantage, in tandem with an elite defense that takes away perimeter attempts and shots around the rim, I like Florida to get the win in Nashville on Saturday.

Florida vs Vanderbilt prediction: Florida Gators ML (+118) available at the time of publishing. Playable to +100. 

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