Florida State Seminoles vs Dayton Flyers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 12/16/25

The Florida State Seminoles and the Dayton Flyers will face off on Tuesday night for a non-conference game. The Seminoles are just 5-5 under first year head coach Luke Loucks and have lost their last four games. Their most recently loss came to UMass, where they gave up 103 points. Dayton is 8-3 and is favored to win this game at home but my best bet of the game is the over.

The total is currently set at 165.5 points and I like the over. Florida State gave up 103 points to UMass last time out, so Dayton should have no issues scoring at a high-level. Florida State’s defense is ranked #290 nationally in opposing points per game at 80.9. They are giving up 97.3 points per game over their last three games and have the #108 ranked defense at KenPom. Dayton’s defense has been better than Florida State’s, but I do not see it being good enough to keep the total under 165.5. Their three-point defense is ranked just #338 at KenPom.

The game should be played at a very fast pace, which should add the value on the over in this one. According to KenPom, Florida State is ranked #7 in adjusted tempo and #7 in average offensive possession length while Dayton is ranked #144 in adjusted tempo. Take the over here.

*Over 165.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at 167*