Florida State Seminoles vs Duke Blue Devils Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/12/26

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With the ACC’s top seeds in action on Thursday, we have reached the meat and potatoes of the conference tournament as top-seeded Duke in action against #8 Florida State at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN. Despite a late push from the Cal Golden Bears on Wednesday, the Seminoles controlled most of their second round matchup in a 95-89 win, scoring 1.36 points per possession while shooting 67% from two-point range and 46% beyond the arc. Equally as impressive, the ‘Noles turned it over just 6 times. 

Florida State’s work will be cut out for them when they play Duke on short rest in the ACC quarterfinals, but encouraging is the fact that the Seminoles played well against the Blue Devils earlier this season in a 91-87 win at home. The ‘Noles had similar scoring and shooting metrics in that game as they did against Cal on Wednesday – just a tiny bit lower – and that came against a fully-healthy Duke squad. The difference between that game and this game is that Duke isn’t healthy, Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba. The duo added 23 points, 12 rebounds and 4 assists combined in the first meeting, with Ngongba also putting up 4 stocks (blocks + steals). 

Without their veteran floor-general point guard and defensive interior anchor, this matchup can be tricky for Duke. Florida State has the size required to match Cameron Boozer in the post, and they force turnovers by disrupting passing lanes – which is a much bigger concern for Cayden Boozer in Foster’s absence. All things considered, there’s enough here for me to take the hefty number with the Seminoles. I can see a path to an upset here, but it will likely require both favorable three-point variance and at least 15 points off forced turnovers. 

Florida State vs Duke prediction: Florida State Seminoles +17.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to +15.5.