Georgetown Hoyas vs North Carolina Tar Heels Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 12/07/25

The college basketball non-conference calendar rolls along on Sunday evening when the Georgetown Hoyas from the Big East head to Chapel Hill to play the North Carolina Tar Heels of the ACC. The Hoyas got back into the win column after 2 straight losses with a 90-81 victory over UMBC, which isn’t entirely that impressive. The Retrievers are outside the top 250 in KenPom’s metrics and while they never held a lead, they connected on over 56% of their two-point attempts, scored 1.21 points per possession, and out-rebounded Georgetown.

Meanwhile, North Carolina also had a bounce-back win during the week when it earned a 3-point victory over Kentucky at Rupp Arena, which was almost immediately devalued after the Wildcats were blasted by Gonzaga on Friday. In any case, the Tar Heels managed the road win despite shooting just 45.5% from inside the arc, 30% from the perimeter, and 60% from the charity strip. It helps that UNC owned the glass.

A return home to the Dean Center after nearly 3 weeks of traveling for neutral-site and road games should be a nice feather in the Tar Heels’ cap on Sunday. Sure, Georgetown already has a true road win over Maryland, but that Maryland team has already lost 4 games and doesn’t have much offense in Buzz Williams’ first season in College Park. North Carolina is a much bigger threat – especially in its own home – which is not good news for a Georgetown defense that couldn’t keep UMBC of all teams out of the paint.

UNC has a big defensive edge in this game. The Tar Heels are 7th nationally in effective field goal percentage thanks to a top-3 two-point defense, which doesn’t bode well for a Hoya offense that doesn’t create much from the perimeter. The Hoyas want to get to the rim or operate in the midrange. Unfortunately for them, the Tar Heels are excellent at taking away the rim, and while they’ll give up midrange shots by default bc of their strong rim-and-three defense, they have plenty of length to contest those midrange looks – as shown by their top-35 mark in midrange shooting percentage allowed despite being close to the bottom of the country in midrange rate allowed (Haslametrics). 

I don’t see how Georgetown keeps UNC out of the paint or off the glass here. Look for the front court trio of freshman phenom Caleb Wilison, Henri Veesaar, and Jarin Stevenson to control the way in a win and cover in Chapel Hill.

Georgetown vs North Carolina prediction: North Carolina Tar Heels -11.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -12.5.

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