Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Saint Mary's Gaels Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/28/26

One of the best games of the weekend comes at the mid-major level, as we’ll see a battle in the WCC between the Gonzaga Bulldogs and Saint Mary’s Gaels to finish out Saturday’s card. These teams are certainly familiar with each other, and most of the country is likely aware that this is the premier rivalry in the conference on a year-to-year basis. Both teams have been in excellent form over the past few weeks as well, with these sides combining to post a 12-0 record since February 7. The Gaels are fresh off a massive win over Santa Clara that essentially stamped their legitimacy as an NCAA Tournament team for yet another season, while the Bulldogs just demolished Portland for a sixth straight victory. This is a series that has been very close in recent years, and one that has quietly become defined by defense. With that in mind, while I do lean toward the visitors completing the regular-season sweep, I’m going to focus on what should be a lower-scoring game than what the market projects. 

Both of these teams boat very good defenses (ranked 11th and 25th, respectively, in adjusted efficiency), and that has shown itself to be the case throughout conference play. In fact, Saint Mary’s is 10-7 to the under in WCC play, while Gonzaga is a whopping 13-4 to the under in league games. It’s clear that since it lost star forward Braden Huff to injury over a month ago, Mark Few’s team has really focused on slowing the game down and simply executing better than its opponents late in the shock clock. Graham Ike has obviously been a force in the paint on both ends, but it also can’t be understated that this is the best Gonzaga defense as a unit since at least the 2021-22 team, a group that had Chet Holmgren as its anchor inside. The Bulldogs should be able to control the paint in this matchup, which is part of how they were able to rally from a halftime deficit and dominate the final 20 minutes en route to an 8-point victory in the previous meeting. We know that Saint Mary’s is going to play extremely slow, with the Gaels ranked 282nd in adjusted tempo per KenPom — and that has generally translated into these matchups. A whopping 21 of the last 30 meetings have stayed under the total, so let’s bank on another lower-scoring affair in what is sure to be an excellent matchup on Saturday.

Gonzaga vs St. Mary’s prediction: Under 144.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 143.5 

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