Houston Cougars vs Arkansas Razorbacks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 12/20/25

The Arkansas Razorbacks and the Houston Cougars will meet in a somewhat-random neutral-site matchup at the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ on Saturday evening, tipping off at 5:30 pm ET on CBS. The Razorbacks come into this non-conference showdown with a 9-2 SU record, and they treat bettors well – covering in 8 of 11 games thanks to their current 6-game ATS win streak. Meanwhile, Houston is 10-1 SU with its lone blemish coming against Tennessee in the Players Era, and though the Cougars are just 5-6 ATS, they have covered in 3 straight.

Under Kelvin Sampson, the Cougars are always extremely efficient defensively. They have been a top-10 team in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency every year since the 2020-2021 season, and much of the same is true this year. Houston is typically very good at limiting action around the rim and in the paint, so perimeter shooting is usually a must in order to have any chance against this bunch. In fact, Sampson’s Cougars have historically shown vulnerability against teams that can spread them out defensively. The Razorbacks can do just that, as they are 20th nationally in three-point percentage – knocking down more than 38% of perimeter attempts collectively as a team. Darius Acuff, Karter Knox, and Trevon Brazile all connect on more than 44% of perimeter attempts according to KenPom, and it’s Brazile that is the key to Arkansas’ success here. At 6’10”, his ability to stretch the floor should pull Joseph Tugler and Chris Cenac out of the paint more often than they would like. 

While Houston is very good defensively, the Cougars have been somewhat undisciplined this year. They currently rank 244th in free throw rate allowed this season, surrendering 26 free throws in games away from home. Arkansas can absolutely make Houston pay for its undisciplined defense, as the Hogs make more than 77% of their free throw attempts with multiple players above 80%. Houston will do everything in its power to keep Arkansas out of transition, but I still think John Calipari’s Razorbacks have enough here to at least keep this game close if they don’t win outright. 

Houston vs Arkansas prediction: Arkansas Razorbacks +4.5 (-105) available at the time of publishing. Playable to +2. 

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