Houston Cougars vs BYU Cougars Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/07/26

Not only one of the games of the day, but what figures to be one of the games of the season will be played at the Marriott Center on Saturday night between Houston and BYU. The battle of the Cougars is must-see TV, as BYU comes into this contest desperate, having lost 4 of their last 5 after starting the season 16-1. Meanwhile, Houston has lost just twice this season, most recently on January 24th at Texas Tech, and has rattled off 3 wins in a row since that recent loss. 

Despite how good Houston is defensively, their games have been higher-scoring this year than in years past. The reason for that is twofold. First, the Cougars have a top-10 offense nationally in terms of adjusted efficiency – one that tops the Big 12 in that metric. Second, they are playing with slightly more pace than they usually do under Kelvin Sampson, due in large part to how good Kingston Flemings and Emanuel Sharp are with the ball in their hands. Also supplementing Houtson’s offense is a top-20 offensive rebounding rate and the 3rd-lowest turnover rate in the country. On the other end, they force turnovers at a top-5 rate, which leads to easy transition opportunities. However, they foul a lot – yielding the highest free throw rate in the conference – and give up a good bit of offensive rebounds, which provides opponents with some easy looks at the rim.

Houston’s kryptonite is teams that can shoot from distance. Their hyper-aggressive defense often leaves shooters open on the perimeter, as shown by their 294th-ranked three-point rate allowed. BYU isn’t the most consistent shooting team, but the Cougars are buoyed by Richie Saunders in that department – who connects on 40% of his three-point attempts. Rob Wright is just over 40% in that regard, albeit with less volume, while AJ Dybantsa can heat up from range too – as shown by his 5-for-8 performance against Oklahoma State on Wednesday. BYU wants to push the pace, sitting 1st in average possession length and 2nd in adjusted tempo in conference play, which should provide enough possessions for a higher-scoring game. Not to mention, like Houston, BYU is a bit over-aggressive defensively and sends Big 12 opponents to the line nearly as frequently as Houston does. 

Given the expected above-average pace, anticipated abundance of fouls and potential for a three-point barrage, I like this game to be higher-scoring than oddsmakers indicate. Take the over. 

Houston vs BYU prediction: Over 148.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 150.5.

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