Houston Cougars vs Iowa State Cyclones Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/16/26

College basketball fans are in for a treat on Monday, as we have a massive marquee game on the schedule between the Houston Cougars and Iowa State Cyclones, a couple of the best teams in the loaded Big 12 conference. I was all over the Cyclones to dispatch the Kansas Jayhawks last Saturday in what was a fantastic spot to back an Iowa State team that had revenge on its mind at home. As for Houston, the Cougars continue to roll through Big 12 play, as Kelvin Sampson’s team has rattled off 5 straight double-digit wins en route to assuming control at the top of the league standings. Houston has a massive week ahead, with a showdown against Arizona staring the Cougars in the face on Saturday. But first, they’ll have to win in an absolute hornets nest of the environment known as Hilton Coliseum. With that in mind, I’ll be going back to the well with Iowa State in what should be an excellent contest on Monday.

TJ Otzelberger’s team has been elite in Ames all season long, and that could end up being the difference in this game. These are a couple of very evenly matched teams on paper, with Houston and Iowa State sitting at 4th and 7th in KenPom respectively. Ultimately, there are a couple of advantages for the hosts that should play a significant role in the Cyclones’ ability to come away with a victory in this one. Most notably, the Cougars are 289th in the nation in 3-point rate allowed, and Iowa State is one of the top 5 teams in the country in 3-point percentage, thanks to the sharpshooting prowess of Milan Momcilovic and freshman Jamarion Batemon off the bench. The Cyclones shoot over 40 percent from deep at home, which should aid them against an excellent Houston defense that thrives on denying points in the paint (13th in 2-point percentage allowed). Furthermore, Iowa State is an excellent rebounding team on both ends, which is always key against a Houston squad that lives to create extra possessions on the offensive glass, while also denying chances for opponents to do the same. The Cyclones also do a great job of not fouling (19th in free-throw rate allowed), and Houston struggles at getting to the free-throw line anyway, so free points shouldn’t be much of an issue. All things considered, this is a pretty decent matchup for the hosts.

Given the elevated home court advantage for the Cyclones in this one, and the couple of pivotal advantages that the hosts have in this matchup, it’s reasonable to project that Iowa State should play to its high standard at home against a Houston team that is primed for a road loss following 6 straight fairly routine victories. I’ll take the Cyclones to hold serve in front of their home fans. 

Houston vs Iowa State prediction: Iowa State ML (-130) available at time of publishing. Playable to -140.

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