Houston Cougars vs Tennessee Volunteers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tuesday, 11/25/25

The Players Era tournament continues on Tuesday with another loaded slate after a truly entertaining first day. Among the star-studded matchups is an Elite 8 rematch between the Houston Cougars and the Tennessee Volunteers. While the rosters are different this year, especially for Tennessee, this should be a battle between two tough programs – led by two highly-regarded coaches. 

Day 1 of the tournament couldn’t have been more different for the Cougars and the Vols. Tennessee destroyed Rutgers to the tune of 85-60, holding the Scarlet Knights to 0.90 points per possession, 39.4% from 2-point range, and 31.6% from 3-point range. The Vols also dominated the glass 43-28, shot over 50% from both inside and outside the arc, and never really looked back after getting out to a 21-10 start in the first 10 minutes of the game. Meanwhile, Houston went to overtime with a surprisingly-scrappy Syracuse team that was without Donnie Freeman, in what ended up being a 78-74 Cougars win. Houston really struggled inside the arc, connecting on just 33.3% of 2-point shots, but the ‘Cougs knocked down 11 perimeter shots and grabbed 17 offensive rebounds to help secure the win. 

Tennessee looked great yesterday, but blindly betting the Vols here because of that would be falling victim to recent bias. The Vols greatly benefitted from playing arguably the worst team in the Players Era, one that lost to Central Connecticut by 13 points last Friday prior to leaving for Las Vegas. In fact, the Vols have had a much easier early-season schedule than Houston to this point, as Rutgers was the first power-conference opponent Tennessee has played. Per KenPom, Tennessee has played the 334th-rated strength of schedule, and while Houston’s isn’t significantly better at 201st, the Cougars have at least been tested by power-conference opponents in Auburn and Syracuse. 

The Volunteers may have a turnover issue. Despite their easy schedule to this point, they rank 273rd in turnovers per game (14.3, and most of those turnovers are live turnovers – as they are 345th in offensive steal percentage, yet 85th in non-steal turnover percentage. That’s simply not going to cut it against Houston, who is 14th in steal percentage and 33rd in forced turnover rate. Tennessee’s soft perimeter defense could also be an issue here. The Vols have surrendered a 3-point shot on almost 47% of opposing attempts, which ranks 333rd nationally, and they’ve been fortunate opponents have only made about 26% of those shots. Houston is a team that can make Tennessee pay from range, even if the Cougars haven’t shot it consistently from range to this point  – specifically senior guard Milos Uzan. Uzan was struggling from range up until yesterday, when he knocked down 4 of his 8 perimeter shots. Freshman guard Kingston Flemings has connected on 50% of his perimeter shots, senior Emanuel Sharp hovers between 36% and 40%, and even freshman big man Chris Cenac is in on the fun – connecting on 7 of his 14 perimeter shots. His range should help pull Tennessee’s Felix Okpara out of the paint and open up the driving lanes for Houston’s guards. Give me Houston.

Houston vs Tennessee prediction: Houston Cougars -3.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -4. 

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