Illinois Fighting Illini vs Michigan State Spartans Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/07/26

College basketball fans will be treated to a banger of a matchup between 2 of the top-4 teams in the Big Ten when the Illinois Fighting Illini head to East Lansing to play the Michigan State Spartans on Saturday night for the first and only time during the regular season. Illinois comes into this contest on the nation’s 6th-longest win streak (12 games), while Sparty has lost 2 straight to Michigan and Minnesota. Despite the difference in recent form, Michigan State is currently listed as a short favorite at home, and it makes sense considering Sparty’s only home losses have come to Duke and Michigan. That being said, Illinois has a couple strong road wins over Purdue and Nebraska, proving they can beat the Big Ten’s top teams no matter the venue. 

Illinois has the most efficient offense in the country, but Michigan State is no slouch defensively. Sparty is 4th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (KenPom), as well as 1st in the Big Ten, holding opponents below a 47% effective field goal percentage and surrendering the lowest offensive rebounding rate in the country. The defensive rebounding prowess of the Spartans is huge in this matchup, as Illinois is the best offensive rebounding team in the Big Ten. The same could be said on the other end of the floor, where the Illini are top-20 in offensive rebounding rate allowed and 3rd in the conference.

Given the fact that Michigan State is at home and seems to match up well against Illinois’ offense, in addition to the ability of both teams to limit second-chance opportunities, I like this game to stay under the total. Both defenses have been excellent at negating opportunities at the rim and in transition, and neither team sends their opponents to the free throw line excessively. Furthermore, there figures to be a below-average pace to this game, as Illinois is 266th in adjusted tempo and 319th in average possession length, while Michigan State is 264th and 199th in those metrics, respectively. 

Illinois vs Michigan State prediction: Under 143.5 (-105) at the time of publishing. Playable to 142. 

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