Iowa Hawkeyes vs Iowa State Cyclones Prediction, Odds and Picks for Thursday, 12/11/25

Thursday’s college basketball card is very limited, but there’s a massive rivalry matchup between Iowa and Iowa State known as the Cy-Hawk Series tipping off at 8:00 pm ET on FS1. The Hawkeyes lead this head-to-head 48-30 all time, but the Cyclones have taken 3 of the last 4 and have only lost to Iowa in Ames just once in the last 20 years. 

Iowa State is a perfect 9-0 ahead of Thursday’s rivalry matchup, coming off arguably the biggest win of the season in West Lafayette against the Purdue Boilermakers. The Cyclones didn’t just beat the Boilermakers, they walloped them 81-58 – scoring 1.25 points per possession while making 58% of their two-point attempts and 48% of their perimeter shots. Meanwhile, Iowa is 8-1 SU and has already begun conference play with a 1-1 record. This will be the Hawkeyes’ second true road game, the first being a 71-52 loss at Michigan State. 

That Sparty defense is the closest thing to Iowa State’s that Iowa has seen, and the Hawkeyes really struggled from the field in that game – connecting on just 46% of two-point attempts and 30% of three-point attempts. The Cyclones are 2nd nationally in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency and have yet to surrender more than 68 points on their home floor, so I expect the Hawkeyes to struggle offensively again here. 

With Ben McCollum now at the helm for Iowa’s basketball program, the Hawkeyes play a different style of basketball. Sitting 347th in average possession length and 356th in adjusted tempo, gone are the days of Fran McCafrrey’s up-and-down pace. Iowa State plays much faster than Iowa, but given the Hawkeyes’ deliberate style in combination with the Cyclones’ lockdown defense, this rivalry matchup figures to be low-scoring. Don’t see Bennett Stirtz struggle to score against the defensive prowess of Tamin Lipsey and Killyan Toure.

Iowa vs Iowa State prediction: Under 143.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to 143.

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