Iowa Hawkeyes vs Oregon Ducks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/01/26

It’s been a forgettable season for the Oregon Ducks, and that might even be putting it lightly, as they are just 8-13 overall – including 1-9 in conference play. Much of their trials and tribulations are due to injuries. They’ve been without Jackson Shelstad for almost half of the year, while Nate Bittle is on the shelf, joined recently by Takai Simpkins and Ege Demir. As such, their recent results haven’t been particularly close. In fact, the Ducks have lost their last 6 games by double digits. 

Iowa has been solid in Ben McCollum’s first year at the helm, boasting a 15-5 overall record with a 5-4 mark in conference play. The Hawkeyes have won 3 in a row, and while the travel west is less than ideal for Big Ten teams, I have a hard time seeing Iowa meeting any resistance against what is a shell of Oregon’s team. Their offense can leave a bit to be desired, but the Hawkeyes will meet an Oregon defense that is 14th in the Big Ten in adjusted efficiency. The Ducks have been particularly bad at the rim and off the dribble, which is exactly where Iowa thrives with Bennett Stirtz running the offense. 

On the other end of the floor, Oregon’s offense has been even worse. The Ducks are either 2nd-worst or dead last in the Big Ten in adjusted efficiency, effective field goal percentage, turnover rate and free throw percentage thus far, and it’s difficult to see how that changes against an Iowa defense that is top-20 nationally in adjusted efficiency. 

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Iowa win this game by margin, but even with Oregon’s perpetual double-digit margins of defeat, I struggle to actually find the confidence to lay the inflated number with Iowa here. Instead, I’m going to target the under. These are 2 of the 3 slowest-paced teams in the conference, as Iowa is 338th in adjusted tempo and 340th in average possession length, while Oregon is outside the top 250 in both metrics. This Ducks team is playing even slower than that recently given all of the injuries, too. 

Iowa vs Oregon prediction: Under 133.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to 132.5.

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