Kansas Jayhawks vs Arizona Wildcats Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/28/26

Another Saturday slate of college hoops is here, and that means that we have an excellent clash in the Big 12 on our hands. This week, the biggest game on the docket takes place in Tuscon, where the Arizona Wildcats are set to host the Kansas Jayhawks in a rematch of what was one of the best games of the season a few weeks ago. Kansas was able to spring the upset at Allen Fieldhouse in that matchup, despite not having the services of Darryn Peterson for that game. Instead, it was the big man combination of Flory Bidunga controlling the paint and Bryson Tiller knocking down pivotal shots that led the way for an undermanned Jayhawks team at home. Arizona has bounced back nicely since that loss, including a very impressive win at Houston a week ago. Kansas is coming off a victory against that very same Houston team, so the natural line of thinking would be to trust Arizona to exact a bit of revenge at home against a Jayhawks team that is coming off a massive win of their own. However, the number is a bit inflated given the spot and a bit of positive injury news for the Wildcats heading into this game. 

Arizona has been without star forward Koa Peat for the last few games due to a leg injury, but the freshman phenom will make his return at home on Saturday. However, Peat was fairly ineffective in that game (6 points on 2-of-11 shooting) and its not a guarantee that he’ll instantly provide a massive boost for the Wildcats offense. It’s worth mentioning that Kansas’ defense is one of the best in the nation and currently sits inside the top 10 in adjusted efficiency over the past month. The Jayhawks even lost the battle on the boards in the previous meeting and were still able to win the game with their defensive intensity and discipline. Kansas is not only a very effective defense at the rim, but Bill Self’s team has been able to defend the basket at a high level without fouling, as the Jayhawks are 8th in free-throw rate allowed since the start of Big 12 play. The concerns for Kansas come on the other side of the ball, seeing as Arizona is a top 10 defense and will certainly be focused on keeping the Jayhawk guards out of the paint. It remains to be seen if Peterson and Melvin Council Jr. will be able to bounce back from their subpar shooting efforts earlier this week, but even if both players struggle in this one (or if Peterson exits the game for any reason), Kansas should be able able to figure enough things out to stay within single digits on the road. I’m expecting more of a defensive battle than what the market projects, and that aligns with backing the underdog in this spot.

Kansas vs Arizona prediction: Kansas +9.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to Kansas +9

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