Kansas Jayhawks vs Duke Blue Devils Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 11/18/25

The State Farm Champions Classic heads to New York City on Tuesday with a pair of intriguing college hoops games at Madison Square Garden. Tipping off at 9:00 pm ET in the 2nd game of the 2-game event will be one of the biggest blue-blood matchups in the sport when the Kansas Jayhawks take the floor opposite the Duke Blue Devils. This was supposed to be a headline matchup between 2 of the country’s premier freshmen, but unfortunately, Kansas guard Darryn Peterson is expected to miss the game due to injury. At least that’s what I took from Bill Self’s comment per 247Sports, “We’re not obviously going to have him, at least, for the immediate future. I just don’t know how long that will be.”

Madison Square Garden is known to be a tough shooting environment for college basketball players who don’t play for St. John’s (the Johnnies use MSG as a pseudo-home court), which leads to a lot of lower-scoring games between some of the sports’ premier programs. That naturally makes me look toward an under right off the bat, especially when factoring in that this will be the first time a lot of these guys will play at MSG in a college basketball game. Nerves and unfamiliar shooting environments are an under bettors’ dream.

Hard-nosed defense is also an under bettors’ dream, and that’s what I expect at both ends of the floor in this matchup. The Blue Devils have one of the most efficient defenses in the country yet again this year despite all the roster turnover, as showcased by their top-10 mark in KenPom’s defensive efficiency. In fact, Duke hasn’t surrendered more than 62 points yet this year, including a neutral site win over Texas at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte to start the year. In that game, Duke held Texas to 33.3% from inside the arc and 29.4% beyond it. 

Kansas is no slouch defensively either, as the Jayhawks are 11th in the aforementioned metric. Both the Jayhawks and the Blue Devils really make their opponents work for shots, as shown by their ranks of 340th and 341st, respectively, in opposing average possession length – which is yet another dream for under bettors. 

The absence of Peterson looms large for Kansas offensively, and while I certainly worry about Kansas’ defense holding up against Duke for 40 minutes, a total north of 150 in a game at MSG between 2 stout defenses is too rich to pass up. 

Kansas vs Duke prediction: Under 151.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to 149.5.

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