Kansas Jayhawks vs Kansas State Wildcats Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 01/24/26

The Sunflower Showdown hits the hardwood in primetime on FOX at 8:00 pm ET Saturday night when the Kansas Jayhawks head to Manhattan to play their in-state rival Kansas State Wildcats. It will be the 2nd straight road game for the Jayhawks, who have won 3 straight and sit at 4-2 in conference play. Kansas State hasn’t had the same fortunes. The Wildcats just notched their first conference win at home on Tuesday, but it was just by 3 points against the Big 12 bottom-feeder Utah Utes despite being a double-digit favorite. At just 1-5 in conference, it won’t get any easier for K-State, who will be without their leading scorer and most reliable three-point shooter in Abdi Bashir for the foreseeable future. The ‘Cats could be without as many as 2 other key contributors, too, if Khamari McGriff and Elias Rapieque both miss another game.

Bill Self’s Jayhawks have struggled of late in Manhattan, failing to leave Bramledge Coliseum with a win since January of 2022. However, I expect that to change against a banged-up Kansas State squad on Saturday. The Wildcats were only 13th in the Big 12 in adjusted offensive efficiency and 12th in effective field goal percentage with Bashir, but without him? That figures to regress, which is not ideal against a Kansas defense that is top-15 nationally in those metrics. The Wildcats are going to want to push the tempo with PJ Haggerty in an attempt to create easy buckets at the rim, but that’s going to be difficult against one of the best transition defenses in the country – especially if they fail to generate turnovers or limit offense rebounds. 

Speaking of offensive rebounding, K-State is 344th in potential points allowed off second-chance opportunities, and they are 334th in conversion rate allowed on those attempts (Haslametrics). Kansas may not be the best offensive rebounding team on paper, but Flory Bidunga and Tre White can exploit that weakness. Bidunga can also exploit the Wildcats’ soft interior defense through his ability to score in post-ups, as well as through variance off-ball movements to the rim – K-State’s weakest defensive areas against top competition. 

There was a bit of a Ewing Theory in play in KSU’s win over Utah on Tuesday without Bashir, but I don’t see that luck perpetuating on Saturday – even if the Wildcats are playing at home. The travel situation for Kansas is not ideal, nor is their recent history in this building, but it’s hard to ignore the schematic advantages the Jayhawks have against a shorthanded Wildcats squad. For what it’s worth, the Wildcats are just 3-9 ATS at home this season, including 0-3 in home conference games, and just 1-5 ATS against Big 12 teams overall. Rivalry games are where trends go to die, but given Self’s recent road struggles in this series, I anticipate the Jayhawks will be fired up and ready to go.

Kansas vs Kansas State prediction: Kansas Jayhawks -4.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -6.5. 

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