Kentucky Wildcats vs Alabama Crimson Tide Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 01/03/26

SEC play commences in a big way on Saturday when the Kentucky Wildcats head to Tuscaloosa to play the Alabama Crimson Tide. The Wildcats have been all over the place this season with a 9-4 SU record, but they have won 4 straight following their pitiful showing against Gonzaga – including wins over Indiana and St. John’s. UK has battled injuries all year, and while Mark Pope’s staff continues to monitor G Jaland Lowe’s nagging shoulder injury, the Wildcats are starting to look like a complete team with Mohamed Dioubate and Jayden Quaintance officially in the rotation.

Alabama is 10-3 SU, having won 3 in a row and 7 of its last 8. The Crimson Tide’s losses have all come against top-10 teams per KenPom’s metrics – Purdue, Gonzaga, and Arizona – while their best wins came against St. John’s, Illinois and Clemson. They beat Kentucky 3 times last season, scoring 96 points in each game in the process and covering every spread. 

Kentucky hasn’t played in a true road game since its 96-88 loss at Louisville on November 11, which is concerning heading to one of the better home-court environments in the SEC. Also concerning is the fact that the Wildcats haven’t played any game since before the holiday break; don’t be surprised to see UK start slow because of that. Alabama was able to get back into groove on Monday with a 102-78 win over Yale, so the Tide should be ready to go at Coleman Coliseum on Saturday afternoon, where they are top-25 nationally in scoring and turn the ball over just 9 times per game. 

The Wildcats’ defense will certainly improve now that Quaintance is part of the rotation, but I still don’t see that being enough to limit the Tide at home. Bama’s offense can be unstoppable when it’s hitting perimeter shots, with its 2nd-ranked efficiency (KenPom) and abundance of reliable three-point shooters. Furthermore, Labaron Philon, who missed the Yale game, is expected to return to action for Alabama. I certainly wouldn’t talk you off a 1-unit play on the Tide ATS. 

Kentucky vs. Alabama prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide -4.5 (-120) at the time of publishing. Playable to -5.5.

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