Louisville Cardinals vs Arkansas Razorbacks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 12/03/25

The ACC-SEC Challenge continues on Wednesday night with an interesting matchup between the Louisville Cardinals and the Arkansas Razorbacks at Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville. The Hogs come into this game off an 80-71 loss to Duke on Thanksgiving at the United Center in Chicago, and currently sit at 5-2 overall. Their only other loss was a 3-point defeat on the road at the Breslin Center, which is a loss that continues to look better and better each day as Sparty continues its hellacious early-season run. 

Meanwhile, Louisville is a perfect 7-0 and has been fairly convincing in all of its wins. It’s worth pointing out that this will be the first true road game on an opposing campus for the Cards, and Bud Walton Arena is typically a very good home environment for Woo Pig Nation. In fact, Arkansas is 60-17 SU at home since 2021 and 19-5 SU since the start of last year. 

With a future on Louisville, I don’t intend to step in front of the Cardinals very often. However, this is a spot that stands out as a play on the home team. Louisville has yet to play in a truly hostile environment, and while Arkansas may not sell out Bud Walton Arena tonight, it will be by far the most intimidating environment the Cards will have seen yet this season. Not to mention, the Cards have a grueling stretch of non-conference games in the days ahead, as they play Indiana, Memphis, and Tennessee all consecutively after this game. Meanwhile, with Fresno State on deck, Arkansas and focus solely on Louisville in the biggest game in Fayetteville in this young season. 

Schematically, it takes a lot to slow down this highly-efficient Pat Kelsey offense, though I believe Arkansas has the build of a team that can do enough to limit the Cards. Guards DJ Wagner and Maleek Thomas have shown an ability to get into the passing lanes, which will be key against a Louisville team that doesn’t turn the ball over much. The Cards love to attack the rim with Mikel Brown Jr., giving him the option to finish the drive to the basket or kick-out to a variety of extremely capable shooters, but — unfortunately for Louisville — Arkansas defends those movements well. The Hogs also defend well in transition — sitting in the 91st percentile in transition defense per Hoop-Explorer. 

Arkansas head coach John Calipari knows how to muck games up when they need to be, and that’s exactly what the Razorbacks need to do to keep this one within striking distance. I worry about Louisville’s propensity to get hot from distance and dominate the glass, but ultimately feel the road environment will help introduce a bit more shooting variance than we’ve seen from Louisville to this point. At the current number, it’s Arkansas or pass. 

Louisville vs Arkansas prediction: Arkansas Razorbacks +3.5 (-105) at the time of publishing. Playable to +3. 

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