Louisville Cardinals vs Cincinnati Bearcats Prediction, Odds and Picks for Friday, 11/21/25

The Louisville Cardinals will head up to Cincinnati to play the Bearcats in what is a fascinating non-conference showdown. Despite not being part of an MTE, the ‘Cards and the Bearcats will technically meet at a neutral-site location at Heritage Bank Center on the river of downtown Cincinnati rather than on UC’s campus. It will be the first time either of these teams play anywhere other than their home campus arena, which is certainly an angle to consider when it comes to shooting efficiency.

Speaking of shooting efficiency, the Bearcats are hard to trust in that department. Despite playing against a less-than-inspiring group of defense, Cincinnati sits just 134th in adjusted offensive efficiency – connecting on fewer than 30% of its 3-point attempts. The Bearcats also struggle at the charity stripe, as Day Day Thomas is the only one on the team that has displayed consistency in that department. Mix in the fact that Cincinnati is 305th in turnover rate, and you will start to wonder if the Bearcats can hang with the ‘Cards for 40 minutes.

Shooting woes and turnovers are not good things to have against this Louisville squad, as the ‘Cards can absolutely fill it up. They are 2nd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, converting on just over 65% of 2-point attempts and 36.4% of 3-point attempts. Louisville’s version of the Splash Bros is doing exactly what they were brought to campus to do, as Ryan Conwell and Isaac McKneely are 28/66 combined from deep (42.4%). Moreover, Louisville has capitalized off opposing mistakes in a big way, averaging more than 24 points per game off turnovers. 

Cincinnati’s defensive metrics are certainly impressive. The Bearcats are 2nd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and top-15 in opposing effective field goal percentage, but I’m wary of those numbers given their soft strength of schedule. In fact, the collection of offenses Cincinnati has played ranks 321st nationally. Obviously, Louisville presents an extreme step up in class and can take advantage of a Bearcat defense that is outside the top 220 in 3-point rate allowed. Mix in Cincinnati’s shooting inconsistencies and turnover issues, and you’ll see Louisville’s path to a win and cover. 

Louisville vs Cincinnati prediction: Louisville Cardinals -8.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -9.5.

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