Michigan State Spartans vs Purdue Boilermakers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/26/26

Headlining mid-major Thursday is a no-so-mid-major battle between Michigan State and Purdue – the day’s only power-conference matchup. Michigan State comes into this contest off 2 straight home wins and is 3-1 SU in their last 4, but the Spartans have lost 2 straight road games and are 3-3 in their last 6 dating back to the loss to Michigan. Meanwhile, Purdue will play their 2nd straight home game after dominating Indiana on Friday; the Boilermakers are 5-1 SU in their last 6 following their 3-game losing streak at the end of January. Purdue has controlled this series of late, winning 11 of the last 15 meetings over the last 10 years. In fact, Michigan State has not won in West Lafayette since 2014, and the Boilers have won most of those games by double digits. 

This is a battle of 2 of the top 4 defenses in the Big Ten from an efficiency standpoint, and both of them excel at limiting transition opportunities and defending in the paint. Purdue loves to send help, which tends to leave shooters open, but Michigan State is not much of a jump-shooting team and they don’t play with much spacing. They have their good games, but they aren’t consistent at all. Meanwhile, the Spartans will hedge against Braden Smith in ball screens, which worked well last year in this matchup, but he’s been much better in the turnover department of late and the Spartans haven’t exactly been the best at forcing steals lately – sitting in the 5th percentile nationally in steal percentage over their last 5. 

Neither team plays fast, sitting below the 30th percentile in pace this season at around 65 possessions per game, and they’re playing even slower of late. Over their last 5 games, Michigan State has played to about 62.5 possessions per game, while Purdue is around 63.7. If both teams can limit turnovers and the amount of offensive rebounds they surrender, this should be a lower-scoring game that stays under the total. 

Michigan State vs Purdue prediction: Under 142.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -141.5. 

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