Michigan Wolverines vs Michigan State Spartans Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 01/30/26

One of the marquee games in college basketball this weekend comes in the Big Ten, where an in-state rivalry headlines Friday’s slate. On one side, the Michigan Wolverines are a consensus top-2 team in the nation analytically, and it’s certainly well deserved given their statistical profile to this point. However, this is far from an easy matchup for Dusty May and company, as the Wolverines will take on the Michigan State Spartans in a game that should come down to the wire in East Lansing. I’ve been a bit lower than the market on both of these teams in recent weeks, and while I don’t have a bet on the side in this game, my preferred wager in Friday’s contest comes on the total.

This game is a clash of styles in terms of how both offenses want to operate. Michigan is a team that likes to play at a quicker pace and get out in transition, as the Wolverines are 12th in the nation in adjusted tempo per KenPom. However, styles make fights in these kind of rivalry matchups, and the Spartans are not a team that is going to get sucked into a fast-paced, up tempo kind of game. Instead, Tom Izzo’s team will focus on making this an ugly, halfcourt game, one where Michigan State will be able to stay close just by virtue of its excellent defense (1st nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency) and the ability to execute late in the shot clock on offense. However, the Spartans are not the only side in this game that boasts an elite defense, as the Wolverines are ranked 2nd in defensive efficiency per KenPom, and that factors in a nonconference portion of the schedule that featured plenty of games against quality offenses. Both sides do a good job of guarding the 3-point line, and neither team sends the opponent to the foul line that often as well. With that in mind, the under is the only way I can look in a game that should be a slugfest.

Michigan vs Michigan State prediction: Under 147.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 146.

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