Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Iowa State Cyclones Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 11/10/25

The Mississippi State Bulldogs and the Iowa State Cyclones will meet on Monday night in Sioux Falls for a non-conference game. Both teams will look to stay undefeated on the season with a neutral-site win against a fellow power conference opponent. This will be a good opportunity for both teams to pick up a massive resume-building victory early on in the season. The Cyclones are 2-0 on the season and are -5 favorites against the 1-0 Bulldogs. My expert pick for this matchup is for Iowa State to cover that spread and start the season 3-0. The Cyclones should boast one of the best defenses in the country, and defense travels. Head coach T.J. Otzelberger has produced a top-15 defense nationally in every year at the helm in Ames and I do not expect that to change during the 2025-2026 campaign. They finished as the #13 defense at KenPom last season and bring back numerous key guys. Tamin Lipsey, Joshua Jefferson and Milan Momcilovic are all back and will likely be the 3 best players.

The Bulldogs have a special talent in Josh Hubbard coming back, but I do not see their offense being good enough outside of him to score consistently on the Iowa State stingy defense. Head coach Chris Jans’ teams have ranked poorly in effective field-goal percentage and 3-point percentage throughout his tenure in Starkville, so I do not see them having success on offense in this one. Mississippi State shot just 29.6 percent from beyond the arc in its season opener against North Alabama; Iowa State will be a much bigger challenge. The Cyclones are ranked #2 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency through 2 games. I believe their defense will be enough to cover the spread.

Mississippi State vs Iowa State prediction: Iowa State -5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -6.

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