NC State Wolfpack vs SMU Mustangs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tuesday, 02/03/26

The SMU Mustangs will return home to the Dallas area on Tuesday for a big matchup against the NC State Wolfpack. The Mustangs were in Louisville on Saturday, where they held a commanding 19-7 lead early, but the Cardinals woke up in a big way and ultimately won by 14. It was a poor offensive showing from SMU, especially from deep, as they scored just 0.99 points per possession thanks to an 8/25 result from range. They also turned the ball over 16 times. 

For as inconsistent as NC State was in the non-conference portion of their schedule, the Wolfpack have really turned it on in ACC play – except for that head-scratching home loss to Georgia Tech. At 7-2, the Pack is tied with Virginia at 3rd in the ACC, trailing just Duke and Clemson. Conference road games are typically very difficult to find repeated success in, but NC State has bucked that trend this season with a perfect 5-0 SU road record against ACC opponents. Will that continue on Tuesday? I’m not so sure. 

SMU coach Andy Enfield has a history of struggling against top-50 teams, and while NC State is just that per KenPom’s rankings, the Wolfpack’s best win is over #32 Clemson. That represents half the number of wins NC State has over a top-50 team, accompanied by 5 losses, so we haven’t really seen NC State have much success against their best opponents. For reference, SMU is a top-50 team with 2 wins that are better than NC State’s best. 

The Wolfpack play downhill, attacking the rim and getting out in transition as frequently as possible. Unfortunately for them, SMU denies rim action very well thanks to Samet Yigitoglu and his top-125 block rate. The Mustangs also limit transition opportunities, sitting in the 36th percentile in opposing transition frequency (Hoop-Explorer). This is enough for me to lean to SMU, especially as a home underdog.

NC State vs SMU prediction: SMU Mustangs +2.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 2.

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