North Carolina Tar Heels vs NC State Wolfpack Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/17/26

The North Carolina Tar Heels have been on a roll of late, winning 6 of their last 7. Their only loss in that stretch was a 75-66 defeat at Miami immediately following their comeback win over Duke a couple Saturdays ago, which is somewhat excusable given the situational spot the Heels were in. Unfortunately, UNC may lose some of that momentum now that freshman-phenom Caleb Wilson picked up a hand injury in that loss to Miami and will miss some time, including Tuesday night’s game at in-state rival NC State. Furthermore, fellow starting big man Henri Veesaar is listed as questionable after missing Saturday’s win over Pitt with an illness and a lower-body injury. I assume he will give it a go considering Wilson’s absence, but we won’t know for sure until closer to tip time on Tuesday.

This game is massive for the conference standings ahead of the ACC Tournament, as both UNC and NC State are about a game out of a top-4 seed, behind the likes of Duke, Virginia, Clemson and Miami. Considering the Wolfpack have dropped 2 in a row, most recently a 1-point loss to Miami in which they completely blew a 7-point lead with about 1 minute remaining in the game, they should be laser-focused for this rivalry matchup. Without Wilson and potentially Veesaar, the Pack should be able to find sustained success offensively on Tuesday night – specifically through Darrion Williams’ ability to stretch the floor, Ven-Allen Lubin’s interior scoring and Quadir Copeland’s aggressiveness towards the rim. 

This number is inflated given UNC’s injury concerns, but I would argue it’s not inflated enough. Wilson is one of the best players in the country, and together with Veesaar, they form one of the best front courts in the sport. The short-handed Heels were able to get past Pitt without any issue, but it will likely be a different story on Tuesday in Raleigh – especially if Veesaar misses another game. Jarin Stevenson and Zayden High just haven’t shown enough for me to trust them in expanded roles against this Wolfpack front court. 

North Carolina vs NC State prediction: NC State Wolfpack -6 (-105) at the time of publishing. Playable to -6.5. 

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, check out bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $200 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. Join Bet365 right now ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ UNC vs NC State predictions.