Ohio State Buckeyes vs Michigan Wolverines Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 01/23/26

The basketball rivalry between Ohio State and Michigan doesn’t carry the same weight as the football one, but these are still 2 teams that do not like each other. Following 2 wins at home, the Buckeyes will hit the road for the first time in almost 2 weeks when they travel to Ann Arbor to play the Wolverines, who seem to have returned to form with 3 consecutive double-digit wins since their loss to Wisconsin. Last time out the Wolverines took care of business against Indiana, holding the Hoosiers to just 72 points and 1.03 points per possession. The travel situation favors Michigan here, as this will be its second straight home game, although the trip from Columbus to Ann Arbor isn’t treacherous by any means.

Backing Michigan still carries a heavy price despite its near-loss against Penn State, followed by its outright loss to the Badgers. However, the Wolverines haven’t been very good against the number of late, losing 5 straight ATS – all double-digit spreads of at least 13.5 points. The 5 consecutive ATS losses have dropped Michigan down to just 9-9 ATS this season. Meanwhile, Ohio State is just 8-10 ATS, although the Buckeyes have yet to be a double-digit underdog this season. In 4 games as an underdog, they are 2-2 ATS.

Instead of gambling on the spread, I’m going to pivot to the total. Michigan plays with electrifying pace, as shown by its top-10 marks in adjusted tempo and average possession length. The Wolverines are highly efficient in transition, as well as through their big men in the paint and around the rim – where Ohio State lacks size and shot-blocking prowess. At home, Michigan puts up almost 98 points per game on a 61% effective field-goal percentage, making them tough to defend on any given night. Considering Ohio State’s lack of interior size, as well as its 10th-best defensive efficiency out of 18 Big Ten teams, Michigan should continue its offensive dominance at home.

Cashing the over on this total will come down to whether or not the Buckeyes will be able to keep pace with the Wolverines, and I believe they can. The Ohio State offense runs through Bruce Thornton and John Mobley, who operate very efficiently off the dribble – which is where Michigan struggles most defensively, as shown by their 9th-percentile efficiency rating against dribble jumpers per Hoop-Explorer. OSU’s efficiency off the dribble leads to a highly-productive mid-range attack, which is an area in which Michigan gives up the most shots. In fact, they are 358th in mid-range attempts allowed (Haslametrics).

Given the fact that Ohio State has not played a team with as much pace as Michigan since its 118-102 win over IU Indy in the first game of the season, we have not seen the Buckeyes need to get up and down the floor to score quite like they will tonight. Boasting the fifth-most efficient offense in the Big Ten, the Buckeyes should be able to score consistently to help push this game over the total. For what it’s worth, Ohio State has played in just 2 games with a total north of 160, and both of those games went over. 

Ohio State vs Michigan prediction: Over 164.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to 166. 

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