Ohio State Buckeyes vs Michigan Wolverines Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/13/26

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The Ohio State Buckeyes’ winning ways continued on Thursday with a 72-69 victory over Iowa. They led by as many as 16 in the second half before the Hawkeyes made it a game late with a chance to tie it at the buzzer. Ohio State has now won 4 games in a row, but the odds are against them to win a fifth on Friday — as they will meet their bitter rivals and the Big Ten’s top-seeded Michigan Wolverines. 

These teams met twice during the regular season, both double-digit wins by the Wolverines. The first meeting was in Ann Arbor in late January, and while Ohio State held a 6-point lead early in the second half, Michigan ended the game on a 40-22 run over the last 17:40. The Wolverines shot 76% from inside the arc in that one, but couldn’t get anything going from the perimeter (5-for-23) and turned the ball over 14 times. Just over 2 weeks later, they met again in Columbus, and while Michigan’s two-point efficiency dropped off, they made double the amount of threes and nearly cut their turnovers in half. Moreover, the Buckeyes never held a lead at home and they made just 20 total shots in the game. 

Ohio State’s offense is great, but the matchup with Michigan isn’t the best. It would likely take a herculean effort from three-point range to keep this game close, as the Buckeyes haven’t been able to find anything at the rim against this defense. In the first meeting, Ohio State got to the rim only 7 times, making 4 of those attempts. In the return game, the Buckeyes had more success getting to the rim — but they scored only 12 points on 18 attempts. Given those numbers, it’s no surprise Bruce Thornton’s 2 worst games in terms of offensive rating were the 2 meetings with Michigan. 

Thornton loves to attack the rim aggressively, and he is usually highly efficient on those attempts — scoring 1.31 adjusted points per possession per Hoop-Explorer. That simply hasn’t been the case against Michigan, and I don’t see what would change in the 3rd meeting on Friday. If Ohio State wakes up for 14 triples and makes this a game, I’ll tip my cap. But given Michigan’s elite defense and superior size, it could be a long day for the Buckeyes once again — although Thursday’s win over Iowa may have sealed their spot in the NCAA Tournament.

Ohio State vs Michigan prediction: Michigan -12.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -13.5.