Ole Miss Rebels vs Alabama Crimson Tide Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/13/26

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Sorry Oklahoma, but Ole Miss has emerged as the SEC’s Cinderella in Nashville following consecutive upset wins over Texas and Georgia as the #15 seed in the conference tournament. Chris Beard is a great coach, so it’s not exactly surprising to see one of his teams surging in postseason play. However, if I’m being honest, it’s mildly surprising to see this team in the quarterfinals. It’s not that Texas and Georgia are some sort of college basketball titans, because they aren’t, but the Rebels were horrible for the final month and a half of the season — winning just 1 game from January 20th through March 7. They even lost to LSU, Mississippi State and South Carolina along the way, all 3 of whom lost their opening games this week and are now done for the season unless one of the ancillary postseason tournaments comes calling. 

Nate Oats is 2-1 SU against Chris Beard’s Rebels over the last 3 years, including a 93-74 win in Oxford earlier this year. In that game, the Tide only connected on 9 2-point attempts, as they hoisted up 45 perimeter shots and knocked down 17 of them en route to 1.26 points per possession. They also won the rebounding battle, turned the ball over just 6 times and converted 24 of their 26 free-throw attempts. 

Ole Miss’ path to success involves slowing this game down and benefiting from some positive three-point variance, but that’s easier said than done. Alabama loves to push the pace while shooting threes at the highest rate in the country. Because of that, if they’re hitting shots, they’re tough to beat. If not, they can lose to anyone. That said, are we sure Ole Miss will have the legs for this type of game? I’m not. 

If Bama is on, it’s going to be tough for Ole Miss to match their output, as the Rebels are 14th in the conference in adjusted offensive efficiency and 15th in effective field-goal percentage. Moreover, they don’t create easy chances for themselves given they are also the SEC’s 2nd-worst in offensive rebounding rate and free throw rate. Defensively, the Rebels are the league’s worst in free-throw rate allowed and 3-point rate allowed, which is music to Alabama’s ears. We all like Cinderella stories in March, but on paper, it’s going to be a tough test for Ole Miss on Friday night. 

Ole Miss vs Alabama prediction: Alabama -11.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -12.