Ole Miss Rebels vs Arkansas Razorbacks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/14/26

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The Cinderella run continues for the Ole Miss Rebels in the SEC Tournament, who can match their regular season conference win total with an upset victory over the Arkansas Razorbacks on Saturday. To reach the SEC semifinals, Ole Miss won 3 games in 3 days against Texas, Georgia and Alabama, and the Rebels were catching more than 5 points in each of those games. In fact, they were double-digit underdogs against Alabama on Friday. Admittedly, I fell for the trap in my Ole Miss vs Alabama preview and leaned to the Tide in that one, though I did mention the Rebels’ path to success was slowing the game down and winning the three-point variance battle. They didn’t really slow the game down, but they absolutely won the three-point battle, connecting on 42% of their attempts while holding Alabama to 31% on 29 attempts. 

Arkansas was in a battle of its own on Saturday against the SEC’s other Cinderella in Oklahoma. The Razorbacks trailed at halftime, but Darius Acuff’s 37 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 steals carried the Hogs to victory over a very formidable opponent – even if it wasn’t the best shooting night. The win was Arkansas’ 8th in their last 10, and now they’ll meet the Rebels for a 2nd time after beating them 94-87 in Oxford in early January.

As they like to say, “if you can’t beat ‘em, then join ‘em.” That’s exactly what I’m doing here with Rebels, as 9.5 points feels like too many with the way Chris Beard has his squad playing. Ole Miss actually has the defensive advantage here given their recent level of play, boasting a 102.4 defensive rating (80th percentile) in the postseason – which is far superior to their 111.7 seasonlong baseline (43rd percentile). Compare that to Arkansas, whose defensive rating is nearly 7 points higher than its baseline over the last 5 games. 

Arkansas is the better three-point shooting team, which could ultimately do Ole Miss in here, but the Hogs don’t shoot the ball a ton from deep – sitting 310th in three-point rate. That number has even gone down lately, as the Razorbacks averaged just 17 three-point attempts per game over their last 5. The Rebels will benefit from that, as they don’t shoot a ton of threes either. Instead, expect a good bit of action from the mid-range and around the rim. With less three-point variance, this game figures to be close throughout, especially when you add in the fact that both teams are top-50 in EvanMiya’s Kill Shots Conceded – meaning neither Arkansas nor Ole Miss allow very many 10-0 runs. 

Arkansas is heavily reliant on one player in Acuff, while Ole Miss has a more balanced approach with 3-4 players scoring double-digit points in every tournament game to this point. Could Acuff single-handedly will the Hogs to victory here? Absolutely, but by 10? I’m not so sure. 

Ole Miss vs Arkansas prediction: Ole Miss Rebels +9.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to +8.