Ole Miss Rebels vs Georgia Bulldogs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/12/26

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Using the word “shocking” when describing Ole Miss’ upset win over Texas in the first round of the SEC Tournament might not be the best word considering Texas hasn’t exactly been invincible this season, but it definitely was at least a mild shock to see the Rebels win that game. They ended the regular season with a 1-12 SU record over their last 13 games, losing to teams like Mississippi State, LSU and South Carolina along the way – who have 12 collective conference wins. 

The Rebels advanced to the second round to face the Georgia Bulldogs, who they actually beat in Athens in overtime as part of their 3-game win streak in mid-January. The Rebels shot very well in that game and turned the ball over just 9 times, while Georgia hit 15 threes, pulled in 21 offensive rebounds and had 34 free throw attempts, yet somehow lost. The Bulldogs probably would have won easily if they shot better from inside the arc, where they connected on just 32% of attempts – nearly 25% below their seasonlong baseline against a defense that yields 55% in conference play. 

I don’t have much conviction on the side at the current number, but I do like points here. Georgia plays at a top-10 pace nationally, and while their tempo has slowed just a bit recently, they still want to attack in transition and still are playing to around 75 possessions per game. Ole Miss doesn’t play with that same pace, but the Rebels haven’t balked at running with uptempo teams in the past. Plus, they are playing with more pace of late, sitting in the top 125 in that regard since February 11th per BartTorvik. 

Georgia will do what Georgia does and chuck up threes while Somtochukwu Cyril attacks the offensive glass, which is obviously good for points. Even if those threes don’t go in, long shots tend to lead to long rebounds that initiate transition opportunities the other way. Ole Miss will counter with a defense that is dead last in the SEC in three-point rate allowed, while also sitting at the bottom of the conference in free throw rate allowed. The Dawgs should get their looks from deep, while also earning frequent trips to the charity stripe – just like they did in the first meeting. 

On the other end, Georgia can also be exposed at the three-point line, but the Bulldogs aren’t very good at the rim – where they will be met by slashing guards like AJ Storr, Ilias Kamardine and Patton Pinkins in addition to Malik Dia. This should provide the Rebels with a solid floor offensively. Further providing scoring support should be the abundance of offensive rebounds on both ends, as neither team is any good at preventing second-chance opportunities. 

Ole Miss vs Georgia prediction: Over 156.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 158.5.