Ole Miss Rebels vs Tennessee Volunteers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/03/26

In the midst of a 3-game losing streak, the Ole Miss Rebels will hit the road for the 3rd straight game – this time to Knoxville to play the Volunteers. Their last game was a struggle offensively, as the Rebels scored just 1.06 points per possession on 49% from two-point range and 27% from beyond the arc at Vanderbilt. That came on the heels of an even worse offensive showing at Rupp Arena, where Ole Miss scored just 0.94 points per possession on 32% from two-point range and 33% from three-point range. 

Tennessee is on a much different run than Ole Miss, as the Vols have won 3 in a row over Alabama, Georgia and Auburn. Their most recent outing against the Tigers wasn’t exactly pretty from an offensive perspective, but the Volunteers were strong defensively against a red-hot Auburn squad and controlled the glass in a big way (46-30). At 5-3 SU in conference, the Vols are on the outside looking in when it comes to a first-round bye in the SEC Tournament, but they have also played the most difficult conference schedule to this point (KenPom). With a favorable SEC schedule ahead of them, Tennessee may be poised to make a run for one of those coveted top-4 spots in the league.

I’m a buyer of Tennessee here, and a lot of it has to do with the Vols’ advantage on the glass. This is the best offensive rebounding team in the country, and Ole Miss doesn’t have much front-court size to limit them on the boards. In fact, the Rebels are 249th in potential second-chance points allowed and 190th in second-chance conversion rate (Haslametrics), so the Vols should at least meet their season average of 16.4 second-chance points per game, if not completely blow by it. Twenty percent of Tennessee’s points come off second-chance opportunities, which puts them in the 99th percentile per CBB Analytics. 

I also like the matchup defensively for Tennessee. The Rebels should have some success getting to the rim, but there’s going to need more than that to cover this spread, much less win the game. Ole Miss operates heavily in the mid-range, and the Volunteers have great length to contest or even limit those shots, holding opponents to sub-34% on those attempts. We’ve also seen a healthy amount of Malik Dia post-ups in this offense, but Tennessee is right around the 80th percentile defensively against those sets. Given the travel situation for Ole Miss, in combination with the advantages defensively and on the boards for the Vols, it’s Tennessee or pass for me.

Ole Miss vs Tennessee prediction: Tennessee Volunteers -11.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to -13. 

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