Penn State Nittany Lions vs Indiana Hoosiers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tuesday, 12/09/25

The Indiana Hoosiers will host a conference opponent for the first time this season when the Penn State Nittany Lions travel to Bloomington on Tuesday for a Big Ten clash. The Hoosiers are in the midst of a 2-game losing streak after a 73-64 loss at Minnesota in their conference opener and an 87-78 loss to Louisville in Indianapolis – a game in which the Cardinals jumped out to a 16-0 lead at the start and the Hoosiers never led. 

Penn State is 8-1 SU with 3 wins in a row, but the Nittany Lions have played just 1 power-conference opponent – a 77-65 loss to 6-4 Providence. Coming into their conference opener, the Nittany Lions have one of the easiest strength of schedules in the country having played just 2 top-200 teams and just 1 top-150 team, yet they are outside the top 60 in both offensive and defensive efficiency when adjusting for opponents. In fact, the defense is outside the top 150 in adjusted defensive efficiency, in addition to sitting 229th in effective field goal allowed. Again, that’s against a group of offenses that collectively ranks 331rd per KenPom’s numbers. 

Indiana’s offense has been stagnant at times, especially recently, but I have a hard time trusting Penn State’s defense when stepping up in class for the first time in two and a half weeks. Not to mention, this will be Penn State’s first true road test – no disrespect to New Haven. It may be finals week, which dampens some crowd intensity and may limit attendance, but Indiana is a massive basketball state and Hoosiers fans are loyal to their hoops program. Assembly Hall should still have a great atmosphere tonight. 

If Penn State isn’t able to limit Indiana’s offense, it’s going to have to score enough to keep up with the Hoosiers at home. Yet again, I don’t find much confidence in that. The Nittany Lions rely heavily on attacking the rim, so much so that they are 14% above the Division 1 average in percentage of shots within 4.5 feet of the rim. Meanwhile, Indiana has the 5th-best two-point defense in the country and has shown the ability to limit and contest rim activity when Sam Alexis is on the floor.

Penn State’s lineup is loaded with freshmen and sophomores, particularly in the backcourt, that are stepping into their first conference road game as significant contributors to their team. Going against an Indiana squad stocked with upperclassmen and riding a 2-game losing streak, I don’t trust the Nittany Lions to keep this competitive – especially if they continue to play mediocre perimeter defense. Indiana covers. 

Penn State vs Indiana prediction: Indiana Hoosiers -15.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -16. 

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