Pittsburgh Panthers vs NC State Wolfpack Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/11/26

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The ACC tournament kicks off its second day of action on Wednesday with a fascinating matchup between Pittsburgh and NC State. The Panthers managed to knock off Stanford and keep their season alive on Tuesday after a frantic final possession resulted in a putback layup in the final seconds. Pittsburgh has been playing better basketball of late, but the Panthers are still a considerable underdog in this game, largely based on full-season results. However, it’s not as if NC State has been an inspiring team over the past month. In fact, the Wolfpack have been a sinking stone for quite a while now, having dropped 6 of their last 7 games while failing to cover the spread in all but 1 of those contests. This is not a game I want to attack from a side perspective, so let’s look at the total in what should be a lower-scoring battle than what the market projects.

Given the early start time for this matchup, it wouldn’t shock me if both offenses came out a bit flat and it took a bit for these teams to get their legs under them. After all, we just saw Pittsburgh play a very low scoring game against Stanford on Tuesday in the same time slot. The Panthers offense leaves a lot to be desired, with Pittsburgh currently sitting at 125th in adjusted efficiency (KenPom), while checking in outside the top 200 in both 2-point and 3-point percentage (BartTorvik). On the other side, NC State’s offense has generally been an inconsistent unit over the last month, with the Wolfpack becoming a team that takes a lot of threes and doesn’t get to the foul line at a very high rate. If the outside shots aren’t falling for Will Wade’s team, this game could easily turn into a slog, which is exactly what Pittsburgh (344th in adjusted tempo) wants. Let’s back the under in this Wednesday opener.

Pitt vs NC State prediction: Under 145.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to Under 144.5

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