Purdue Boilermakers vs Iowa Hawkeyes Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/14/26

The Purdue Boilermakers survived in Lincoln on Tuesday in an overtime win over Nebraska, but they really tried to give the game away. Leading by as many as 22 in the second half, Purdue allowed the Cornhuskers to creep back into the game and even gave them a chance to steal it, but the Boilermakers eventually prevailed thanks to Braden Smith’s play-making as well as the dominance on the glass of Trey Kaufman-Renn and Oscar Cluff. With the win, the Boilers are a half-game back of Illinois and 2.5 games back of Michigan in the Big Ten race. 

Iowa returns home following an embarrassing road loss at Maryland on Wednesday, as the Hawkeyes failed to secure a win despite forcing 14 turnovers. They allowed the Terps to connect on nearly 71% of their 2-point attempts, which only highlights their defensive struggles inside the arc. Iowa is 228th in 2-point defense, in the 31st percentile against the rim attacks of top-100 teams and has really struggled on the glass in conference play — which are not good qualities to have against this Purdue front court. 

These teams met once already this season, with Purdue prevailing by 7 points. Iowa held a 9-point lead in the second half, but despite making 48% of their threes and holding Purdue to just 6 offensive rebounds, the Hawkeyes couldn’t get the result. They are excellent from the perimeter, but can we really count on them to knock down almost half of their attempts again? Moreover, considering they are 12th in the Big Ten in offensive rebounding rate allowed and in the first percentile nationally in defensive rebounds per game over their last five, can we trust Iowa to limit TKR and Cluff on the glass? I’m not so sure. Iowa has not stepped up in class very well this year, having yet to beat a KenPom top-30 team. The Hawkeyes are 0-4 SU in such matchups, likely because they are too reliant on the shot creation of Bennett Stirtz to beat well-balanced teams like Purdue. It’s Boilermakers or nothing for me in this one.

Purdue vs Iowa prediction: Purdue -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -2.5. 

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