San Diego State Aztecs vs New Mexico Lobos Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/28/26

Only one day separates us from March, and as part of the final Saturday in February, San Diego State will head to The Pit to play the New Mexico Lobos at 2:00 pm ET on CBS. The Aztecs come into this game off a huge home win over Mountain West leader Utah State, which pulled them even with the Aggies in the standings despite consecutive losses to Grand Canyon and Colorado State in the games prior. Meanwhile, the Lobos enter this matchup off a loss at Nevada on Tuesday and currently sit 1 game behind Utah State and San Diego State in the conference standings. 

These teams met once already this year, back on January 17 when the Aztecs beat the Lobos 84-79 at home. Both teams shot well from beyond the arc, but turnovers were an issue and Magoon Gwath was injured during that game – playing only 10 minutes. Considering Gwath just played his second-most minutes of the year, I would expect him to be full go for this one, which should help San Diego State’s interior defense tremendously against a New Mexico offense that loves to attack the rim. Even Elzie Harrington is back from injury now, providing the Aztecs with another plus defender on the perimeter opposite Jake Hall and Deyton Albury. 

The Pit is a very tough place to play, and the Lobos are shooting the lights out right now, but it’s hard to go against Brian Dutcher’s coaching pedigree in a game of this magnitude. The Aztecs are on the mend from a health perspective, and it shows in the metrics, as they are top-20 in adjusted defensive efficiency and forced turnover rate since February 1st per BartTorvik. They should be able to shut down New Mexico’s transition opportunities and force their opponents into jumpers all game long, which hasn’t necessarily been a bad thing for the Lobos. However, I’m still expecting some two-way shooting regression from New Mexico, as they’re shooting over 43% from distance in their last 5 games despite having just one volume shooter over 38% from range on the roster, while holding opponents below 30% despite being in the 17th percentile in three-point attempts allowed over that span and 357th in three-point rate allowed on the season. Catching a full possession worth of points, I’m on San Diego State here. 

San Diego State vs New Mexico prediction: San Diego State Aztecs +3 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to +2.

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