San Francisco Dons vs Oregon State Beavers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Sunday, 03/08/26

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The West Coast Conference Tournament continues on Sunday with a quarterfinals matchup between the San Francisco Dons and Oregon State Beavers. The Beavers have not played yet this week due to the modern format of this bracket that protects the conference’s higher seeds, but the Dons were in action on Saturday when they cruised to an 82-65 win over Portland while benefitting from a +0.25 point-per-possession advantage.

These teams played twice during the regular season, and Oregon State took the win both times. In the first meeting on December 30, San Francisco’s offense failed to show up in Corvallis, as the Dons scored fewer than 1 point per possession and shot just 19% from the perimeter in a 70-62 defeat. In the return game at home, the Dons were basically just as bad offensively in that game, but they were exceptionally poor defensively without their most efficient defender in Tyrone Riley. In his absence, the Dons surrendered 90 points, as the Beavers scored almost 1.5 points per possession and connected on 12-of-20 threes. 

I don’t always subscribe to it, but the old adage is “it’s tough to beat a team 3 times in one season.” Oddsmakers seem to buy into that notion for this matchup considering the Dons are currently -3.5 favorites despite an 0-2 mark and a -35 point differential against the Beavers this year. This is typically a strong indicator that the favorite is the play, but I’m having a tough time getting there. The Dons have just 3 wins February 1, and 2 of those victories came against Portland and San Diego – who went 11-24 combined in conference. The 3rd came against Pacific in the regular season finale, who was off 3 straight games against Saint Mary’s, at Washington State and at Gonzaga. 

The Dons should look better this time around with Riley back in action, but it’s not enough to prevent me from taking a position on Oregon State – especially considering how well Dez White and Josiah Lake led the offense in both prior meetings. For what it’s worth, the Beavers are top-100 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency since February 1, while San Francisco is outside the top 265 in defensive efficiency and 301st in effective field goal percentage allowed in that span. The Dons may find their way to a victory, but by more than a possession? I don’t see it.

San Francisco vs Oregon State prediction: Oregon State Beavers +3.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to +2.

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