South Carolina Gamecocks vs Oklahoma Sooners Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/11/26

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The SEC Tournament opens play on Wednesday with a 4-game first round, and the final game of the quartet pits a rematch between #11 Oklahoma and #14 South Carolina. These teams met once this season in Columbia, and it was the Gamecocks who took care of business in an 85-76 win thanks to an ugly shooting performance from the Sooners – who happen to be the best three-point shooting team in the SEC this season despite that showing. South Carolina comes into this contest off a high note, notching their 4th conference win in the regular season finale at Ole Miss on Saturday, but Oklahoma has much better sustained form. The Sooners have won 4 straight and 6 of their last 8 after that awful 1-9 start to conference play, including wins over Vanderbilt, Georgia, Auburn, Missouri and Texas. With that form, they are 22nd nationally in Haslametrics’ Momentum, where South Carolina ranks 254th. 

Since February 1st, Oklahoma is 8th nationally in BartTorvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency and 2nd in three-point percentage, knocking down 44% of their attempts in that span. While they are shooting slightly above their heads, this current form is more in line with their baseline shooting performance than the 18% outing in Columbia in mid-January, as the Sooners have connected on more than 37% of perimeter attempts over the course of the entire year. Nijel Pack, Xzayvier Brown and Jadon Jones are all better than 37% in their careers too, which makes me think that first meeting was just an aberration. After all, it was their 2nd-worst perimeter shooting performance of the entire season, while it was South Carolina’s 3rd-best three-point efficiency mark in conference play. The Gamecocks have connected on just 30% of their perimeter attempts this season, including conference play, and – for what it’s worth – they’ve connected on 6 or fewer threes more than they’ve hit double-digit threes. 

With their recent form, the Sooners have played their way onto the bubble. Because of that, they have more to play for on Wednesday than South Carolina, and winning in dominating fashion only helps their case as a last-minute addition to the bubble. Considering Oklahoma made 61% of twos, won the turnover battle and pulled in 12 offensive rebounds in the first meeting, the unordinary performance from the perimeter on both sides was the difference in the game. Really, Myles Stute and Elijah Strong’s combined 6-of-9 mark from three was the difference in that contest. Can we expect that to happen again? Unlikely, considering they are both 31% or lower on the season and have made just 8 combined threes in 9 games since the beginning of February. 

South Carolina is just 2-10 SU in road and neutral games, and those 10 losses have come by an average of more than 13 points per game. In conference games away from home, their only 2 wins came against the 2 teams that finished below them in the standings, while their 7 losses spiked to an average margin of defeat closer to 17 points. We were all over South Carolina on Saturday, but we’re going against the Gamecocks in Nashville on Wednesday night and taking what feels like a remade team in Oklahoma. 

South Carolina vs Oklahoma prediction: Oklahoma Sooners -7.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -8.5. 

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