Tennessee Volunteers vs Vanderbilt Commodores Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tomorrow, 02/21/26

An in-state SEC showdown will take place in Nashville on Saturday when the Tennessee Volunteers make the short journey to Memorial Gymnasium to play the Vanderbilt Commodores. The Vols have found a nice groove, winning 8 of their last 10 after their poor showing at Florida. Meanwhile, the Commodores are still going relatively strong without Franklin Collins and Duke Miles, prevailing in 5 of their last 7. The 2 losses in that span came over the last 4 games and they were both 1-point defeats. Fortunately for Vandy, Miles will return to action on Saturday. That will be a boost for the ‘Dores on both ends of the floor, but will it be enough to beat their rival by margin?

Vanderbilt has been strong on both ends of the floor this year, sitting top-20 nationally and top-6 in the SEC in adjusted efficiency. However, they don’t have the best paint defense, and they aren’t strong on the glass. Both of those issues could be costly against a Tennessee team that is highly productive in the paint and right up there with Florida as the best offensive-rebounding team in the country. The recent form is in line with that assessment; Tennessee is in the 100th percentile in offensive rebounding rate and 93rd percentile on the defensive glass over their last 10 games while Vanderbilt is in the 51st and 7th percentiles over that span, respectively. 

In the paint, the Commodores are in the 5th percentile nationally in paint attempts allowed per game over their last 10, and their opponents are converting on just under 50% of those shots – which is in the 10th percentile. The Vols are equipped to exploit that weakness, sitting in the 82nd percentile in paint attempts playing through freshman star Nate Ament and senior maestro Ja’Kobi Gillespie. With strong advantages on the glass and in the paint, I like the Vols to stay within a possession, if not win the game outright even with Miles back in the lineup.

Tennessee vs Vanderbilt prediction: Tennessee Volunteers +3.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to +3.

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